Chapters 4 and 5 from Myths and Tales of a Bull Market

 

 I hope you have enjoyed the first three chapters of Myths and Tales of a Bull Market. Here are chapters 4 and 5. 

Chapter 4 — The Oracle and the Herd

Every bull market creates its prophets.
They appear on TV, in podcasts, and across social media feeds, confidently predicting where the market will go next. They speak with authority, armed with charts, ratios, and jargon that lend their words the sound of prophecy.

These are the Oracles — the voices that shape the herd.

Investors, desperate for certainty, gather around them. They crave guidance, a sign that their optimism is justified. When the Oracle says, “The bull has years left to run,” they believe. When he predicts new record highs, they buy.

And often, the Oracle is right — at least for a while.

During the late stages of a bull market, the data still looks strong. Employment is high, corporate profits are robust, and the economy appears unstoppable. Confidence becomes self-reinforcing: investors buy because they believe others will continue to buy.

But the herd doesn’t notice when the Oracle’s message changes from analysis to entertainment. The focus shifts from accuracy to attention. Predictions grow bolder because boldness sells.

In the 1990s, the gurus of the “new economy” dismissed traditional valuation models. In the 2000s, housing experts said real estate could “never fall nationwide.” In the 2020s, influencers declared that certain stocks or digital assets would “only go up.”

Each time, the herd followed — right to the edge.

The tragedy is that investors often surrender their judgment to someone who sounds certain. But markets don’t reward certainty; they reward adaptability.

The wise investor listens to oracles but worships none. They seek insight, not prophecy. They question, test, and verify before following the herd.

When the crowd moves one way, look the other. The Oracle might be selling while he’s still telling you to buy.

True wisdom in the market isn’t about predicting the future — it’s about preparing for it. The herd follows forecasts; the investor follows discipline.

---

Chapter 5 — The Castle in the Sky — Valuation Myths

Every bull market builds castles in the sky — beautiful structures of hope, belief, and inflated numbers. They look solid from a distance, but they rest on foundations of air.

The myth begins with a simple idea: This time, valuation doesn’t matter.

When optimism takes hold, investors justify any price for a good story. A company’s earnings may be tiny, but its “potential” is enormous. Analysts invent new metrics to explain the inexplicable — “price per user,” “eyeballs,” “engagement hours.” Anything to avoid the uncomfortable question: Is this actually worth it?

During the dot-com boom, companies with no profits traded at a market capitalization of billions of dollars. In the crypto boom, coins with no use case reached astronomical valuations. And in every cycle, the same rationalization appears: “We’re early. This is the future.”

But valuation always matters — eventually.

Warren Buffett famously said, “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
Bull markets invert that logic. Price becomes the story, and value becomes an afterthought. Investors chase momentum, not fundamentals. They believe the castle will never collapse — until one day, the clouds clear and the illusion fades.

When the market corrects, valuation becomes gravity.
Stocks that soared 500% fall 70%. Companies once hailed as revolutionary quietly file for bankruptcy. The investors who dismissed valuation as “old-fashioned” rediscover its importance the hard way.

And yet, not every castle is a mirage. Some companies truly do reshape the world — but even those deserve scrutiny. Amazon, Tesla, Apple — all faced years when their valuations looked excessive. But they built fundamental foundations underneath the dream: profits, cash flow, and innovation that justified the price over time.

The difference between fantasy and foresight lies in discipline.

A wise investor asks:

• What is this business really worth today?
• What assumptions must come true for the price to make sense?
• How much risk am I ignoring because I want the story to be true?

The market rewards imagination — but only when it’s balanced with reason.

So, admire the castle. Dream of what it could become. But before you move in, make sure it’s built on rock, not air.

👮👮👮👮👮👮👮👮👮👮👮👮👮👮👮👮 

Go Read Chapters 6 and 7

                   

Whispers from a Quiet Investor: The Answer to Successful Investing through Cunning Intelligence. Kindle $9.99, Paperback $10.99.